charlie crist – Richard DeNapoli

Broward Election Recap – Part 1 of a Series

November 18, 2014/0 Comments/in News/by Richard

FIRST in a SERIES.

The takeaway: Liberal Broward County’s 2014 vote for the Republican candidate for Governor was less than 30% (the lowest countywide percentage for a Republican Gubernatorial candidate in Broward for available historical records), and Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Governor Scott was actually lower than he received in 2010.

STATEWIDE. The election results have finally been certified. Governor Rick Scott officially won Florida with a margin of 64,145 votes. I, of course, was very pleased that Governor Scott was reelected. As I’ve done in the past, I’ll attempt to put all of these numbers in context, and compare them to past elections. I started by analyzing some Sarasota county election results here, here and here. Now, after some requests, I’ll begin with some Broward County election analysis before moving onto statewide trends.

BROWARD BACKGROUNDER. First, let’s start with a little Broward County election history. (I grew up there.) Registered Republican numbered 236,069 voters, while Democrats numbered 545,119 as of the book closing date of the November 2014 election. As you can see, Broward county is a liberal bastion that Democratic candidates depend upon to deliver them votes. Typically, a Republican candidate had to pull about 35% of the vote in Broward in order to win the state of Florida. Governor Scott changed this dynamic back in 2010 when he won Florida while only receiving 33.35% of the vote in Broward. He did this with increased turnout from the northern, more Republican parts of Florida. 2010 was also a “Republican wave” year, where Democratic turnout was depressed compared to past election cycles. In Broward, total turnout was only 41% back in 2010. (This is turnout of all voters. Turnout by party is generally available from the Supervisor of elections about a month after the election. When turnout is low in heavily Democratic Broward County, that usually means Democrats didn’t turn out. In fact, Republicans in Broward had about a 49% turnout in 2010.) This year, total turnout was 44.48%, which means that Democratic turnout had to have increased compared to 2010. Broward has generally exhibited lower turnout in recent years (since 1998) compared to the state as a whole, which had a 50.51% turnout in 2014, and may be explained by reading the Decline of the Broward’s Midterm Voter.

BROWARD VOTE TOTALS FOR SCOTT AND CRIST. In Broward, it was 138,394 votes for Scott and 318,950 votes for Crist. That’s a margin of 180,556 for Crist. As I mentioned, Broward county is a liberal bastion so it was a typically lopsided showing. In fact, it seems to be the worst showing for a Republican gubernatorial candidate as far back as the data is available. Going back to 1978 (as far as available on the state and local supervisor of elections, see graphic below), I couldn’t find any gubernatorial election where the Republican received less than 30% of the vote in Broward, but in this year’s election Scott only received 29.47% in Broward. Democrat Charlie Crist increased the Broward Democratic margin of victory by a whopping 49,395 votes better than Democrat Gubernatorial Candidate Alex Sink in 2010. Governor Scott had to overcome these deficits by adding some serious numbers from Duval, St. Johns, and Sumter, as well as ratcheting up his margins in many other smaller counties throughout the state. Crist performed far behind Sink in northern Florida, where he spent little time campaigning. Scott actually received 2,051 less raw votes in Broward County than he did in 2010. Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Scott was actually lower than in 2010.

Past Gubernatorial Results for Broward County

In future posts in this series, I’ll try to examine why the vote turned out like it did by reviewing turnout and voter performance, comparing the more Republican east side of Broward county to the rest of the county, analyzing demographic trends, and trying to draw some conclusions to explain the numbers.

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Richard DeNapoli served as the Chairman of the Republican Party of Broward County from December 2010 through December 2012, as was a delegate to the 2008 and 2012 Republican National Conventions from Broward County. He is an attorney and Certified Financial Planner (R) who now lives in Sarasota County with his family. You can read more about Richard at www.richard-denapoli.com.

Sarasota Analysis: GOP wins overall but Democrats win Absentee Ballot votes in Marquee Races

November 10, 2014/1 Comment/in News/by Richard

In my continuing series analyzing the Sarasota County November 2014 election results, I have focused on the Governor’s race and the School Board race.

One interesting trend, however, is not just who wins but who wins the portion of the votes cast via Absentee Ballot, Early Voting, and on Election Day.

Absentee ballots have largely been thought of to be a source of strength for the Republican candidates statewide, but the numbers in the November 2014 elections in Sarasota may show the opposite trend locally. In all of the most hotly contested countywide races, the Democratic candidate won the absentee ballot vote. In some of the other races, even where the Republican candidate won by a solid amount, the Democrat did much better and even won the absentee ballot vote in one case. We won’t know the breakdown of how many Republicans, Democrats, and Independents actually voted until about 30 days after the election – for now we just know the vote totals.

Conversely, Republicans won the Early Vote in all of these races and won the Election Day vote by the most outsized margins.

In the Governor’s race, Charlie Crist actually received 27,265 Absentee votes to Scott’s 24,516.

Sarasota Governor’s Race Breakdown, via Sarasota Supervisor of Elections Website, as of November 9, 2014

In the hotly contested School Board race between Ken Marsh (Democrat) and Bridget Ziegler (Republican), Marsh received 23,985 Absentee ballot votes to Ziegler’s 21,653 votes.

Marsh v. Ziegler Vote Breakdown

You can see this pattern in the less hotly contested countywide races. In the Charter Review Board race, Republican Joe Justice won overall with 54% to Jennifer Cohen’s 46%. But Cohen (24,759) received slightly more Absentee votes than Justice (24,210).

Justice v Cohen Vote Breakdown

Even in the County Commission race between Republican Alan Maio and Democrat Ray Porter, where Maio won a decisive victory, Porter did much better in the Absentee portion of the vote than in the Early Votes or Election Day votes.

Maio v Porter vote Breakdown

Sarasota School Board Race Analysis – Large “Undervote”

November 9, 2014/1 Comment/in News/by Richard

Ken Marsh (Blue) versus Bridget Zeigler (Green) from the Sarasota Supervisor of Elections website, November 8, 2014

Following the analysis of the Governor’s Race in my earlier post, we move on to the School Board race.

This was covered in the Sarasota Herald Tribune where they wrote about the “North/South Divide” today between voters in Sarasota county.

The Herald Tribune wrote, with regards to the School Board race:

“Even in nonpartisan races, the divide between north and south is clear. In the Sarasota County School Board race, Ken Marsh, a Democrat, won Sarasota County north of Clark Road with almost 50.5 percent of the vote, to 49.5 percent for Bridget Ziegler, a Republican.

South of Clark, though, Ziegler carried 52 percent of the vote to just 48 percent for Marsh.

But while Marsh won the city of Sarasota, his vote total paled in comparison with other Democrats on the ballot. Though Marsh had a much more organized campaign, Porter and Lawrence both won more votes in the city of Sarasota than Marsh.

Particularly problematic for Marsh was Newtown. In one key precinct there, other Democratic candidates won more than 80 percent of that vote.

Marsh only hit 62 percent.

Though there was indeed a divide, where Marsh won North of Clark by 658 votes, and Ziegler won South of Clark by 3,047 votes, resulting in Ziegler’s 2,389 vote victory, it’s interesting that Ziegler overperformed Republican candidates North of Clark while underperforming South of Clark (comparing Scott v Crist numbers, and taking Wyllie out of the equation). Also, Marsh underperformed Democratic candidates North of Clark (especially in Newtown, as pointed out above), while overperforming South of Clark. Perhaps this had to do with the lack of party identification actually being on the ballot. Perhaps Marsh’s Newtown underperformance also had to do with voters there appreciating Ziegler’s support of vouchers, though there’s no way to know for sure.

One of the most noticeable things about the school board race is the dropoff in votes from the top of the ticket races. For example, 24,400 less votes (or about 15%) were cast in the School Board race than the Governor’s race. Though this is not unusual, it is interesting.

Click here to see the spreadsheet attached, analyzing the precincts using numbers from the County Supervisor of Elections taken on 11/7/2014.

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About Richard DeNapoli

A native of Hollywood, Florida, Richard DeNapoli is passionate about law, estate planning, financial planning, real estate and the relationships he has formed through helping others in these areas.

In addition to being a Licensed Attorney, Realtor, Mortgage Broker and Notary, Richard has also been successful in obtaining his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® certification. He worked as a Trust and Investment Officer for five years at Northern Trust on a team with $1.8 Billion assets under management providing services to high net worth individuals.

Richard DeNapoli is a native of Hollywood, FL, and a graduate of the University of Miami School of Law (2008, LL.M., Estate Planning), Fordham Law School (2002, J.D.) and New York University (1999, B.A., Politics; B.A. Italian). He was the first person in his family to attend college. He is licensed to practice law in Florida and in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

In 2007, Richard DeNapoli was appointed as a Commissioner to the Florida Real Estate Commission (“FREC”), and subsequently reappointed when that term was up. Both of his appointments to the FREC were confirmed by the Florida Senate.

He was unanimously elected to serve as the Chairman of the Florida Real Estate Commission from 2010-2011, and he continues to serve on the Commission today. Richard also served as the Treasurer of the Broward Republican Party in 2010, and then as Chairman of the Broward County Republican Party through December of 2012. For more than 15 years, Richard has volunteered in various capacities for Republican candidates in New York and Florida.

Recently, Richard has been focusing on his professional career and on his family. Richard is married to Brigita, and they welcomed a new addition to their family, Victor Alfred DeNapoli, who was born in August 2012.

“North/South Divide” in Sarasota Continues in Election 2014

November 8, 2014/3 Comments/in News/by Richard

Sarasota County Precinct Results for 2014 Governor’s Race with Clark Road Division Marked

I’ve been doing some analyses of the Election 2014 results in Sarasota County. Back in August, Jeremy Wallace, of the Sarasota Herald Tribune, wrote about the “North/South Divide” between voters in Sarasota county.

This trend has continued in the November 2014 elections and is visible in the Governor’s race election. Continuing a trend in the Governor’s races, Sarasota results were slightly closer, with the margin for the Republican candidate (Rick Scott) only outpacing the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) by about 5,000 votes. Compared to the 2010 results, the Democratic candidate (Crist) improved his margin by about 1,500 votes.

Analyzing the North of Clark Road precincts, the results are:

Scott: 45.76%
Crist: 48.77%

South of Clark Road precincts:
Scott: 50.90%
Crist: 43.03%

Countywide
Scott: 48.63%
Crist: 45.56%

Scott performed 5.14% better South of Clark than North of Clark
Crist performed 5.75% better North of Clark than South of Clark

So the divide holds where North of Clark is the more Democrat friendly part of Sarasota County and South of Clark is more Republican friendly.

Click here to see the spreadsheet attached, analyzing the precincts using numbers from the County Supervisor of Elections taken on 11/7/2014.

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About Richard DeNapoli

A native of Hollywood, Florida, Richard DeNapoli is passionate about law, estate planning, financial planning, real estate and the relationships he has formed through helping others in these areas.

In addition to being a Licensed Attorney, Realtor, Mortgage Broker and Notary, Richard has also been successful in obtaining his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® certification. He worked as a Trust and Investment Officer for five years at Northern Trust on a team with $1.8 Billion assets under management providing services to high net worth individuals.

Richard DeNapoli is a native of Hollywood, FL, and a graduate of the University of Miami School of Law (2008, LL.M., Estate Planning), Fordham Law School (2002, J.D.) and New York University (1999, B.A., Politics; B.A. Italian). He was the first person in his family to attend college. He is licensed to practice law in Florida and in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

In 2007, Richard DeNapoli was appointed as a Commissioner to the Florida Real Estate Commission (“FREC”), and subsequently reappointed when that term was up. Both of his appointments to the FREC were confirmed by the Florida Senate.

He was unanimously elected to serve as the Chairman of the Florida Real Estate Commission from 2010-2011, and he continues to serve on the Commission today. Richard also served as the Treasurer of the Broward Republican Party in 2010, and then as Chairman of the Broward County Republican Party through December of 2012. For more than 15 years, Richard has volunteered in various capacities for Republican candidates in New York and Florida.

Recently, Richard has been focusing on his professional career and on his family. Richard is married to Brigita, and they welcomed a new addition to their family, Victor Alfred DeNapoli, who was born in August 2012.

Richard DeNapoli Supports Marco Rubio at the Rubio Breakfast Rally in Coral Springs on September 25, 2010

September 25, 2010/0 Comments/in News/by Richard

Today, September 25, 2010, Richard DeNapoli, Treasurer of the Broward Republican Party, had the pleasure of attending the Marco Rubio rally breakfast in Coral Springs. Richard, along with other volunteers, made hundreds of calls on behalf of Marco Rubio’s campaign. Richard previously attended the Reclaim America Town Hall on July 31 in Fort Lauderdale featuring Marco Rubio and Eric Cantor. Richard is proud to support Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee in this November’s General Election. Marco is the Republican nominee against former Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who is running as an independent, and Kendrick Meek, the Democrat nominee, in the November 2010 General Election.

Richard DeNapoli with Marco Rubio at the Marco Rubio Rally in Coral Springs, September 25, 2010

RICHARD DENAPOLI’S

MORE THAN 10-YEAR COMMITMENT

TO REPUBLICAN & CONSERVATIVE CAUSES

ENERGY & ENTHUSIASM

LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE

Fellow BREC Member,

As we approach election day on Monday, December 6th, I wanted to share with you my Volunteer Resume. I have been committed to our party and the conservative cause as aGrassroots Volunteer & Activist for more than 10 years in New York and Florida, and look forward to serving you as your Chair.

Colleen Stolberg and I have the experience, grassroots commitment, and longevity in the BREC to truly make a positive impact. See below after the Volunteer Resume how Colleen and I have worked to implement our Eight Point Platform for the Almost Eight Hundred Precincts in Broward.Colleen and I will work with all of you to make our Executive Committee stronger. We humbly ask for your vote on December 6th.Thank you,Richard DeNapoli

Richard DeNapoli’s Republican, Conservative, and Business Resume

1995 – 1999 – Active in College Republicans
1999 – Leadership Institute “training conservative leaders” Youth Leadership School Attendee

1999 – Earned Bachelor’s Degree, NYU, Majors: Politics, Italian Richard Head Shot

2000 – Mayor Giuliani’s Legal Counsel’s Office; Volunteer for President Bush, local Republican State Senator, and the Rick Lazio for Senate Campaign; Poll watcher; Featured on ABC News during the 2000 Election Recount as a law student supporting Bush

2001 – Legal intern for the Center for the Community Interest, wrote briefs in support of Giuliani administration reforms

2001 – Political Consultant for Republican Campaign for New York City Council

2002 – Volunteer for Republican New York State C Richard with Jeb ontroller candidate

2002 – Earned Law Degree, Fordham

2003 – Returned to Florida to care for my elderly grandparents, opened Law Offices of Richard DeNapoli, specializing in Real Estate, Wills, Trusts

2003-2004 – Political Consultant, January Special Election District 91, became involved in BREC

2003 – Joined Broward County Young Republicans

2004 – Volunteer, President Bush, Broward County

2006 – Volunteer, Brenda Lynn Di Ioia for County Judge

2006 – Volunteer, Charlie Crist for Governor

2006 – Started getting more involved in our local Broward clubs Richard

2006 – Began service on BREC Candidate Recruitment and Political Committees

2007 – Leadership Hollywood Class XXXI

2007 – Host Committee, BREC Lincoln Day Gala with Mayor Giuliani, the most financially successful Lincoln Day in recent times

2007 – Featured on ABC Nightly News for Real Estate Investing

2007 – Attendee RBN Campaign Management Training

2007 – Appointed to the Florida Real Estate Commission

2008 – Earned Master of Law Degree in Estate Planning, University of Miami

2008 – Accepted offer to join a Private Bank as a Trust Officer; closed my law practice

2008 – Volunteer, Giuliani Presidential Campaign; Volunteer, John McCain after primary – made thousands of calls from the Southeast Victory Office, contributed, attended events all over the county for John McCain.

I always support our Republican nominees.

2008 – Delegate, Republican National Convention

2009 – Speaker, January 2009 BREC Meeting. Gave extensive presentation regarding Election 2008 Results

2009 – Treasurer, Southeast Club; Treasurer, Broward County Young Republicans

2009 – BREC Lincoln Day with Newt Gingrich; Volunteer

2009 – Attended Tax Day Tea Party & July 4th Tea Party at Broward & Federal with other BREC members

2009 – Attended RPOF Statesman’s Dinner in Orlando

2009 – Named to Broward County Political Leadership Team, Steering Committee, Bill McCollum for Governor Richard with McCollum

January 2010 – Speaker/Presenter at BREC Campaign School

March 2010 – Founded Republican Club of Greater Hollywood with other BREC members from around Broward County…speakers included Karen Harrington, Hollywood City Commissioner Patty Asseff, Hollywood City Commissioner Heidi O’Sheehan, Sheriff Al Lamberti, School Board Member Former Chair/Vice Chair Kevin Tynan, RNC Secretary/State & National Committeewoman Sharon Day, State Committeeman Ed Kennedy, Commissioner Chip LaMarca, Chair Cindy Guerra…grew club to 40 members in a couple of months Richard Sharon Day

Spring through November 2010 –Attended Allen West functions, fundraisers, was on Allen West legal team

April 2010 – Attended Tax Day Tea Party Broward & Federal with other BREC members

May 2010 – Elected Treasurer of BREC. Total funds raised in 2010 after May 2010: $40,000. Funds raised in 2010 prior to May: $2,480.

June 2010 – Issued fundraising challenge at BREC meeting, matching any contributions personally up to $500.

July 2010 – Attended BREC Precinct Training, assisted in formulating program Richard with Marco Rubio

July 2010 – Attended the Reclaim America Town Hall on July 31 in Fort Lauderdale featuring Marco Rubio and Eric Cantor

August 2010 – Co-sponsored and moderated the Congressional 20 Republican Candidates debate, with over 200 attendees. Pledged as a BREC Officer and a local club President not to endorse any candidate in the primary. Supported Republican nominee Karen Harrington after the primary. I always support our Republican nominees.

August 2010 – Attended Super Saturday Meet Marco Rubio at BREC Headquarters before the primary.

August 2010 – Attended Broward GOP Unity Breakfast after the August 24th Primary Richard with George Moraitis

August 2010 – I proudly supported Bill McCollum in the primary – my commitment to his campaign began prior to my time as BREC Treasurer…and when McCollum lost I proudly supported our Republican nominee and now Governor-Elect Rick Scott. I always support our Republican nominees.

August through November 2010 – Walked for George Moraitis after the primary. Served on Moraitis host committee for fundraiser.

August 2010 – Speaker/Presenter at RBN-sponsored Precinct Training session in Coral Springs

August 2010 – Helped set up the Northwest Victory Office, setting up computers, furniture, etc.

September 2010 – Attended the Breakfast with Marco Rubio at the Northwest Victory Office Unity with Allen West

September 2010 – Organized and was a speaker/presenter at a precinct training session with State Committeeman Ed Kennedy at the Greater Hollywood Club

September 2010 – Attended Scott/Carroll Event at Dolphins Stadium

October 2010 – Walked for Allen West with other BREC members at the Tea Party Fort Lauderdale sponsored walk

October 2010 – Broward GOP Victory Dinner. Worked with Board to raise money for BREC’s support of our local candidates. Raised about $20,000.

October 2010 – Phone banked at the Northwest Victory Office for all Republican Candidates

October 2010 – Walked precincts from the Northwest Victory Office for ALL Republican Candidates

October 2010 – Delivered supplies for precinct walking campaigns to the Southwest Victory Office

October 2010 – Provided precinct information to many of our members; provided information on Early Voting and Absentee Voting stats via facebook through Election Day With Rick Scott

October 2010 – Phone-banked for all the Statewide candidates on numerous occasions from home and at victory offices

October 2010 – Helped make hundreds of signs at the Rick Scott headquarters

Early Voting – Election Day 2010 – Poll Watcher for Rick Scott and all statewide candidates during Early Voting and on Election Day

Election Eve 2010 – Placed approximately 200 signs around Hollywood and Hallandale Beach for Rick Scott

Election Night 2010 – Sponsored with my own funds the Broward GOP Election Night Victory Party…more than 100 attended.

Making calls at the Fort Lauderdale Victory Office

Getting ready for a precinct walk on 10-23-2010

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