Broward Election Recap – Part 1 of a Series

FIRST in a SERIES.  

The takeaway: Liberal Broward County’s 2014 vote for the Republican candidate for Governor was less than 30% (the lowest countywide percentage for a Republican Gubernatorial candidate in Broward for available historical records), and Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Governor Scott was actually lower than he received in 2010.

STATEWIDE.  The election results have finally been certified.  Governor Rick Scott officially won Florida with a margin of 64,145 votes.  I, of course, was very pleased that Governor Scott was reelected.  As I’ve done in the past, I’ll attempt to put all of these numbers in context, and compare them to past elections.  I started by analyzing some Sarasota county election results here, here and here.  Now, after some requests, I’ll begin with some Broward County election analysis before moving onto statewide trends.

BROWARD BACKGROUNDER.  First, let’s start with a little Broward County election history. (I grew up there.)  Registered Republican numbered 236,069 voters, while Democrats numbered 545,119 as of the book closing date of the November 2014 election.  As you can see, Broward county is a liberal bastion that Democratic candidates depend upon to deliver them votes. Typically, a Republican candidate had to pull about 35% of the vote in Broward in order to win the state of Florida.  Governor Scott changed this dynamic back in 2010 when he won Florida while only receiving 33.35% of the vote in Broward.  He did this with increased turnout from the northern, more Republican parts of Florida.  2010 was also a “Republican wave” year, where Democratic turnout was depressed compared to past election cycles.  In Broward, total turnout was only 41% back in 2010.  (This is turnout of all voters.  Turnout by party is generally available from the Supervisor of elections about a month after the election.  When turnout is low in heavily Democratic Broward County, that usually means Democrats didn’t turn out.  In fact, Republicans in Broward had about a 49% turnout in 2010.)  This year, total turnout was 44.48%, which means that Democratic turnout had to have increased compared to 2010.  Broward has generally exhibited lower turnout in recent years (since 1998) compared to the state as a whole, which had a 50.51% turnout in 2014, and may be explained by reading the Decline of the Broward’s Midterm Voter.

BROWARD VOTE TOTALS FOR SCOTT AND CRIST.  In Broward, it was 138,394 votes for Scott and 318,950 votes for Crist.  That’s a margin of 180,556 for Crist. As I mentioned, Broward county is a liberal bastion so it was a typically lopsided showing.  In fact, it seems to be the worst showing for a Republican gubernatorial candidate as far back as the data is available.  Going back to 1978 (as far as available on the state and local supervisor of elections, see graphic below), I couldn’t find any gubernatorial election where the Republican received less than 30% of the vote in Broward, but in this year’s election Scott only received 29.47% in Broward.  Democrat Charlie Crist increased the Broward Democratic margin of victory by a whopping 49,395 votes better than Democrat Gubernatorial Candidate Alex Sink in 2010. Governor Scott had to overcome these deficits by adding some serious numbers from Duval, St. Johns, and Sumter, as well as ratcheting up his margins in many other smaller counties throughout the state.  Crist performed far behind Sink in northern Florida, where he spent little time campaigning.  Scott actually received 2,051 less raw votes in Broward County than he did in 2010.  Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Scott was actually lower than in 2010.

Past Gubernatorial Results for Broward County

Past Gubernatorial Results for Broward County

In future posts in this series, I’ll try to examine why the vote turned out like it did by reviewing turnout and voter performance, comparing the more Republican east side of Broward county to the rest of the county, analyzing demographic trends, and trying to draw some conclusions to explain the numbers.

Richard DeNapoli served as the Chairman of the Republican Party of Broward County from December 2010 through December 2012, as was a delegate to the 2008 and 2012 Republican National Conventions from Broward County.  He is an attorney and Certified Financial Planner (R) who now lives in Sarasota County with his family.  You can read more about Richard at www.richard-denapoli.com.

Sarasota Analysis: GOP wins overall but Democrats win Absentee Ballot votes in Marquee Races

In my continuing series analyzing the Sarasota County November 2014 election results, I have focused on the Governor’s race and the School Board race.

One interesting trend, however, is not just who wins but who wins the portion of the votes cast via Absentee Ballot, Early Voting, and on Election Day.

Absentee ballots have largely been thought of to be a source of strength for the Republican candidates statewide, but the numbers in the November 2014 elections in Sarasota may show the opposite trend locally.  In all of the most hotly contested countywide races, the Democratic candidate won the absentee ballot vote.  In some of the other races, even where the Republican candidate won by a solid amount, the Democrat did much better and even won the absentee ballot vote in one case.  We won’t know the breakdown of how many Republicans, Democrats, and Independents actually voted until about 30 days after the election – for now we just know the vote totals.

Conversely, Republicans won the Early Vote in all of these races and won the Election Day vote by the most outsized margins.

In the Governor’s race, Charlie Crist actually received 27,265 Absentee votes to Scott’s 24,516.

Sarasota Gov Race Numbers

Sarasota Governor’s Race Breakdown, via Sarasota Supervisor of Elections Website, as of November 9, 2014

In the hotly contested School Board race between Ken Marsh (Democrat) and Bridget Ziegler (Republican), Marsh received 23,985 Absentee ballot votes to Ziegler’s 21,653 votes.

Marsh v. Ziegler Vote Breakdown

Marsh v. Ziegler Vote Breakdown

You can see this pattern in the less hotly contested countywide races.  In the Charter Review Board race, Republican Joe Justice won overall with 54% to Jennifer Cohen’s 46%.  But Cohen (24,759) received slightly more Absentee votes than Justice (24,210).

Justice v Cohen Vote Breakdown

Justice v Cohen Vote Breakdown

Even in the County Commission race between Republican Alan Maio and Democrat Ray Porter, where Maio won a decisive victory, Porter did much better in the Absentee portion of the vote than in the Early Votes or Election Day votes.

Maio v Porter vote Breakdown

Maio v Porter vote Breakdown

Sarasota School Board Race Analysis – Large “Undervote”

Ken Marsh (Blue) versus Bridget Zeigler (Green) from the Sarasota Supervisor of Elections website, November 8, 2014

Ken Marsh (Blue) versus Bridget Zeigler (Green) from the Sarasota Supervisor of Elections website, November 8, 2014

Following the analysis of the Governor’s Race in my earlier post, we move on to the School Board race.

This was covered in the Sarasota Herald Tribune where they wrote about the “North/South Divide” today between voters in Sarasota county.

The Herald Tribune wrote, with regards to the School Board race:

“Even in nonpartisan races, the divide between north and south is clear. In the Sarasota County School Board race, Ken Marsh, a Democrat, won Sarasota County north of Clark Road with almost 50.5 percent of the vote, to 49.5 percent for Bridget Ziegler, a Republican.

South of Clark, though, Ziegler carried 52 percent of the vote to just 48 percent for Marsh.

But while Marsh won the city of Sarasota, his vote total paled in comparison with other Democrats on the ballot. Though Marsh had a much more organized campaign, Porter and Lawrence both won more votes in the city of Sarasota than Marsh.

Particularly problematic for Marsh was Newtown. In one key precinct there, other Democratic candidates won more than 80 percent of that vote.

Marsh only hit 62 percent.

Though there was indeed a divide, where Marsh won North of Clark by 658 votes, and Ziegler won South of Clark by 3,047 votes, resulting in Ziegler’s 2,389 vote victory, it’s interesting that Ziegler overperformed Republican candidates North of Clark while underperforming South of Clark (comparing Scott v Crist numbers, and taking Wyllie out of the equation).  Also, Marsh underperformed Democratic candidates North of Clark (especially in Newtown, as pointed out above), while overperforming South of Clark.  Perhaps this had to do with the lack of party identification actually being on the ballot.  Perhaps Marsh’s Newtown underperformance also had to do with voters there appreciating Ziegler’s support of vouchers, though there’s no way to know for sure.

One of the most noticeable things about the school board race is the dropoff in votes from the top of the ticket races.  For example, 24,400 less votes (or about 15%) were cast in the School Board race than the Governor’s race.  Though this is not unusual, it is interesting.

Click here to see the spreadsheet attached, analyzing the precincts using numbers from the County Supervisor of Elections taken on 11/7/2014.

About Richard DeNapoli

A native of Hollywood, Florida, Richard DeNapoli is passionate about law, estate planning, financial planning, real estate and the relationships he has formed through helping others in these areas.

In addition to being a Licensed Attorney, Realtor, Mortgage Broker and Notary, Richard has also been successful in obtaining his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® certification. He worked as a Trust and Investment Officer for five years at Northern Trust on a team with $1.8 Billion assets under management providing services to high net worth individuals.

Richard DeNapoli is a native of Hollywood, FL, and a graduate of the University of Miami School of Law (2008, LL.M., Estate Planning), Fordham Law School (2002, J.D.) and New York University (1999, B.A., Politics; B.A. Italian). He was the first person in his family to attend college. He is licensed to practice law in Florida and in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

In 2007, Richard DeNapoli was appointed as a Commissioner to the Florida Real Estate Commission (“FREC”), and subsequently reappointed when that term was up. Both of his appointments to the FREC were confirmed by the Florida Senate.

He was unanimously elected to serve as the Chairman of the Florida Real Estate Commission from 2010-2011, and he continues to serve on the Commission today. Richard also served as the Treasurer of the Broward Republican Party in 2010, and then as Chairman of the Broward County Republican Party through December of 2012. For more than 15 years, Richard has volunteered in various capacities for Republican candidates in New York and Florida.

Recently, Richard has been focusing on his professional career and on his family. Richard is married to Brigita, and they welcomed a new addition to their family, Victor Alfred DeNapoli, who was born in August 2012.

 

“North/South Divide” in Sarasota Continues in Election 2014

Sarasota County Precinct Results for 2014 Governor's Race with Clark Road Division Marked

Sarasota County Precinct Results for 2014 Governor’s Race with Clark Road Division Marked

I’ve been doing some analyses of the Election 2014 results in Sarasota County.  Back in August, Jeremy Wallace, of the Sarasota Herald Tribune, wrote about the “North/South Divide” between voters in Sarasota county.

This trend has continued in the November 2014 elections and is visible in the Governor’s race election.  Continuing a trend in the Governor’s races, Sarasota results were slightly closer, with the margin for the Republican candidate (Rick Scott) only outpacing the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) by about 5,000 votes.  Compared to the 2010 results, the Democratic candidate (Crist) improved his margin by about 1,500 votes.

Analyzing the North of Clark Road precincts, the results are:

Scott: 45.76%
Crist: 48.77%

South of Clark Road precincts:
Scott: 50.90%
Crist: 43.03%

Countywide
Scott: 48.63%
Crist: 45.56%

Scott performed 5.14% better South of Clark than North of Clark
Crist performed 5.75% better North of Clark than South of Clark

So the divide holds where North of Clark is the more Democrat friendly part of Sarasota County and South of Clark is more Republican friendly.

Click here to see the spreadsheet attached, analyzing the precincts using numbers from the County Supervisor of Elections taken on 11/7/2014.

About Richard DeNapoli

A native of Hollywood, Florida, Richard DeNapoli is passionate about law, estate planning, financial planning, real estate and the relationships he has formed through helping others in these areas.

In addition to being a Licensed Attorney, Realtor, Mortgage Broker and Notary, Richard has also been successful in obtaining his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® certification. He worked as a Trust and Investment Officer for five years at Northern Trust on a team with $1.8 Billion assets under management providing services to high net worth individuals.

Richard DeNapoli is a native of Hollywood, FL, and a graduate of the University of Miami School of Law (2008, LL.M., Estate Planning), Fordham Law School (2002, J.D.) and New York University (1999, B.A., Politics; B.A. Italian). He was the first person in his family to attend college. He is licensed to practice law in Florida and in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

In 2007, Richard DeNapoli was appointed as a Commissioner to the Florida Real Estate Commission (“FREC”), and subsequently reappointed when that term was up. Both of his appointments to the FREC were confirmed by the Florida Senate.

He was unanimously elected to serve as the Chairman of the Florida Real Estate Commission from 2010-2011, and he continues to serve on the Commission today. Richard also served as the Treasurer of the Broward Republican Party in 2010, and then as Chairman of the Broward County Republican Party through December of 2012. For more than 15 years, Richard has volunteered in various capacities for Republican candidates in New York and Florida.

Recently, Richard has been focusing on his professional career and on his family. Richard is married to Brigita, and they welcomed a new addition to their family, Victor Alfred DeNapoli, who was born in August 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rick Scott Visits the Sarasota GOP Victory Office

Today I was there for Gov. Rick Scott’s visit to the Sarasota GOP Victory office. Governor Scott greeted the thanked the volunteers and gave a quick speech before going out to knock on doors in Sarasota.

Here are a few pictures:

Rick Scott with Veteran

Rick Scott with Veteran at Sarasota Victory Office

Richard DeNapoli

Volunteering to knock on doors in Venice

 

Richard DeNapoli with Rick Scott September 28 2014

Richard DeNapoli wtih Governor Rick Scott

Rick Scott meeting volunteers Rick Scott

Thank You from Richard DeNapoli

Dear Friends,

We came up short on election day but ran the best campaign we could. Thanks to everyone who has helped me along the way during the campaign – whether you’ve donated, volunteered, sent prayers my way, or helped in any way whatsoever, I really appreciate it from the bottom of my heart.

I know that we all worked the hardest we could and I’m so grateful for all of the hard work that so many of you have given me, my family and this campaign.

I called Dr. Gonzalez shortly after the polls closed to congratulate him and offer him my endorsement and support. Now it’s important that we all work together to gain a Republican supermajority in the Florida House and Senate and reelect our Cabinet members and Governor Rick Scott. Governor Scott called me on Wednesday to ask that I stay involved in the Republican Party and I pledged to do everything I could to help him win reelection.

Thanks to all my supporters and friends for everything !

Richard DeNapoli
941-228-3738

Election Recap: DeNapoli wins Absentee Votes, but Gonzalez Ruled Election Day to win

DeNapoli wins absentee ballot count, but Gonzalez ruled Election Day

By Jeremy Wallace, Sarasota Herald Tribune, Wednesday, August 27, 2014

It was a tale of two elections in the House District 74 election.

Venice doctor Julio Gonzalez defeated Richard DeNapoli on Tuesday night, winning 57 percent of the vote in the most hotly contested Republican Primary in the region.

But it wasn’t as one-sided as the results show.

Election results show DeNapoli beat Gonzalez in the absentee voting that started at the end of July. DeNapoli was winning 53.2 percent of the absentee ballots.

DeNapoli prided himself on getting out and going door to door months before Gonzalez went out in full force. DeNapoli’s aggressive early campaign with Gonzalez’s campaigns slow ramp up likely contributed to that results.

But Gonzalez erased most of the gap in early voting that started Aug. 16. When polls opened on Tuesday and after weeks of television ads and mailers, Gonzalez was up, but he and DeNapoli were separated by just 138 votes.

Then everything changed.

Gonzalez won nearly two out of every three Republican voters on Election Day. That 138 vote margin ballooned to almost 2,000.

Undoubtedly, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio will get a lot of credit for Gonzalez rebound. Rubio cut a television commercial supporting Gonzalez that was airing non-stop in the closing days of the election to help drive turnout.

Election Results: DeNapoli wins Absentee Votes, but Gonzalez Wins Early and Election Day Votes to win the election

Election Results: DeNapoli wins Absentee Votes, but Gonzalez Wins Early and Election Day Votes to win the election

To read more, click here

###

From “House District 74: Julio Gonzalez

by Jeremy Wallace, Sarasota Herald Tribune, August 26th, 2014

…The two candidates [DeNapoli and Gonzalez] combined to spend more than $660,000 in their battle to win a two-year term that pays just over $30,000 a year. In addition, political groups poured in at least another $900,000, for a combined $1.5 million used primarily on attacking ads on TV, in mailers and on the Internet. …

Gonzalez benefitted from a strong endorsement from U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, a Miami Republican, down the stretch. Rubio made television ads that blanketed Sarasota in an effort to help Gonzalez.

“I am forever indebted to him,” Gonzalez said.

DeNapoli, who called Gonzalez to concede and endorse him, said he had no regrets. He said he didn’t have the money to overcome the outside political committees that helped Gonzalez.

The Florida Medical Association alone spent more than $375,000 through a pair of political action committees to run ads against DeNapoli. …

###

From “Polls Show Sarasota County Divided

by Jeremy Wallace, Sarasota Herald Tribune, August 27th, 2014

…in the state House District 74 primary battle between Republicans Julio Gonzalez and Richard DeNapoli, voters in Venice and North Port took opposing approaches.

DeNapoli won in North Port with 51 percent of the vote. But Venice favored Gonzalez, with 64 percent of the vote.

Because turnout was much higher in Venice, Gonzalez won the seat, despite losing North Port, the county’s largest city.

…DeNapoli and [Shannon] Snyder [a County Commission candidate] showed that while North Port can break differently than other parts of the county, winning there is not yet enough to build a victorious campaign because of how much lower voter turnout is there compared to areas like Venice.

Though North Port has 59,000 residents, only about 5,800 voted Tuesday, even though it had two big City Commission races, three School Board races and a premier state House race on the ballot. In Venice, which has 21,000 residents, almost 3,800 voters turned out.

[Republican Party County Chairman Joe] Gruters said if North Port residents took advantage of their potential political power, they could dominate county politics.

##

From “Gonzalez Clinches House District 74 Seat”

By Steve Reilly, North Port Sun, August 27th, 2014

…Gonzalez said he was pleased DeNapoli had called to congratulate him.

“He was very cordial and gracious and he wished me a lot of success and I’m very grateful that he called and expressed his well wishes,” he said.


Richard DeNapoli in SRQ Magazine Daily

Richard DeNapoli, District 74

Candidate

BY   |   SRQ DAILY SATURDAY PERSPECTIVES EDITION   |   SATURDAY AUG 16, 2014
Having been adopted and raised by my maternal grandparents and caring for them through the last stages of their life has afforded me a perspective and opportunity to want to give back to my community and promote conservative Republican ideals. I believe in lowering taxes and a smaller government, which will lead to economic prosperity and more high quality and higher paying jobs for Floridians. Using my training as a Certified Financial Planner, I want to seek out and eliminate wasteful government spending, protect law abiding and legal residents from tax payer-funded giveaways to illegal aliens and safeguard the promises given to our seniors by former elected officials.  As a Certified Financial Planner Professional and successful businessman, I know how to balance a budget and help families and seniors plan for the future. Also, as a former Florida Real Estate Commissioner for the last six years, I worked to reduce excessive government regulations, while still protecting the public from unscrupulous individuals.  I also served as a local Republican Party County Chairman where I grew up and fought for conservative values for the last 15 years.  I’ve been knocking on thousands of voters’ doors throughout South Sarasota County for almost a year now and understand the issues that are important to you.  My experience in these areas sets me apart and makes me uniquely qualified to help grow Florida’s economy and build a bright future for our children and grandchildren.