Insider Poll: Bush stronger against Hillary, Fla primary likely Bush v. Rubio

I participated in the latest Florida Insider Poll today.

Check out some portions below and click here for the full article.

From: Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor, Friday April 10th, 2015

“Fact: It’s virtially impossible for Republicans to win the White House if they fail to win Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Fact: Florida, for the first time ever, has two leading contenders for the Republican presidential nomination, Marco Rubio. who is expected to make his candidacy offical Monday and Jeb, Bush, who seems happy to pretend he hasn’t aleady decided while he continues to raise tens of millions of dollars for his candidacy.

More than 78 percent of our Florida Insiders said Bush would be the stronger candidate against Clinton in Florida.


From a Republican: “No matter the GOP nominee — Florida will never move out of the toss up column in 2016. In the end Jeb or Rubio would carry Florida over Hillary …..Anyone else on the GOP side and Florida goes blue when all said and done.”

Our Insiders do not take [Hillary] Clinton for granted. More than 72 percent said she has a strong chance to win Florida in the general election, including 57 percent of our Republican Insiders.

Nearly 80 percent said that Rubio will run for governor in 2018 if he is not elected Republican President, and many think that’s the real game plan.

For the full article, click here.

Participants in our latest Florida Insider poll include 75 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and 11 people registered to neither major party.  They are:

Ana Cruz, Bob Poe, Kelly Cohen, Michael Albetta, Christina Johnson, David Aronberg, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Ana Navarro, Chris Kise, Cindy Graves, Bud Shorstein, Towson Fraser, Eric Jotkoff, Cory Tilley, Eric Johnson, Aubrey Jewett, Frank Tsamoutales, Husein Cumber, Jim Rimes, Kevin Cate, Stephen Shiver, Nancy Watkins, Rockie Pennington, Bernie Campbell, Monica Russo, Andy Ford, Justin Day, Susannah Randolph, Christian Camara, Dean Cannon, Rick Wilson, Stephen Bittel, Scott Arceneaux, Zach Zachariah, Ron Sachs, Jamie Wilson, Sarah Rumpf, Hayden Dempsey, Roger Stone, Jeff Johnson, Kristy Campbell, Ryan Wiggins, Anthony Pedicini, Kathy Mears, Jackie Lee, Meredith Orourke, Seth Mckee, Fred Piccolo, Ryan Tyson, Mark Ferrulo, Joe Perry, Dave Karvelas, Brian Ballard, Matthew Corrigan, Julia Gill Woodward, Alan Clendenin, Ron Greenstein, Pat Neal, Nancy McGowan, Mark Zubaly Brad Coker, Pablo Diaz, Richard DeNapoli, Dan Smith, Jennifer Green, Nikki Lowrey, Scott Peelen, Steve Geller, Ann Herberger, Doc Dockery, Nels Kingston, Davod Bishop, Steve Schale, Steve Uhlelder, Paula Dockery, David Colburn, Rich Heffley, Mac Stipanovich, Darrick McGhee, James Harris, Karen Unger, Frank Mirabella, Alex Sink, Alex Patton, Martion Hammer, Jason Unger, Nick Hansen, Jason Roth, Ellen Freidin, John French, Rodney Barreto, Marty Fiorentino, Arlene DiBenigno, Ron Gunzberger, Marc Reichelderfer, Susie Wiles, Trey Stapleton, Damien Filer, Andrew Gillum, Robert Coker, John Morgan, John Stemberger, Steve Schale, Bob Graham, Erik Kirk, Fred Karlinsky, Millie Herrera, Mike Hana, Darryl Paulson, Abel Harding, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Stafford Jones, John Wehrung, Kevin King, Jim Kitchens, Mike Hamby, Greg Truax, Kathleen Shanahan, Peter Antonacci, Mark Guzzetta, Jamie Miller, Mitch Ceasar, Barry Edwards, Karl Koch, Stephanie Kunkel.

Florida Insider Poll: Who’s Likely to Run in the 2016 Senate Race?

Today, Richard DeNapoli was a featured participant in the Tampa Bay Times Fla Insider Poll…here’s an excerpt…

Fla Insider Poll: Sizing up Fla’s ’16 US Senate race
Adam C. SmithAdam C. Smith, Times Political Editor
Friday, January 30, 2015 8:40am

An open U.S. Senate seat is usually a once-in-a-generation opportunity for ambitious poltiticians. And with Marco Rubio moving toward a presidential run and vowing he would not hang onto his senate seat as a fall-back, 2016 is shaping up to be another huge cyce for political dominoes to tumble in Florida — a state with countless credible Republican contenders and a tiny Democratic bench.

Who’s likely to run, and who’s not? Time for another Florida Insider Poll, taking the pulse of many of Florida’s most experienced and sophisticated political minds.

Nearly 130 Florida campaign professionals, fundraisers, lobbyists, political scientists, and the like participated and underscored how many more options Republicans have than beleaguered Florida Democrats. Still, there was wide agreement on the likely nominee, with 56 percent predicting Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater of Palm Beach County would wind up the GOP nominee.

At least initially, the field could be vast.

“If Marco doesn’t run, with a wide open seat, every current and former Republican elected and with a pulse will express interest in running. But it will quickly whittle down to a smaller field of serious contenders, including some of the folks elected statewide currently serving in term-limited positions in Tallahassee,” said a Republican.

The Democratic side of the equation is much tougher, with only one statewide elected Democrat, Bill Nelson, already serving in the U.S. Senate. The skimpiness of the Democratic bench is underscored with the Florida Insider Poll, with the two most common predictions being little-known relative newcomers, U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Palm Beach County and newly elected U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham of Leon County.

“Either Graham or Murphy would be a good candidate for the Dems. To win, the Democrat needs to avoid a primary and hope the Republicans have a messy one,” one Democrat said.