Richard Writes in BizPACReview
I wrote a piece today in BizPACReview entitled “Who will beat the nation’s most vulnerable Democrat” analyzing the numbers in the Congressional District 18 race between Allen West and Patrick Murphy. You can read part of it here and link to the full story below.
Who will beat the nation’s ‘most vulnerable Democrat’?
FEBRUARY 19, 2013 BY RICHARD DENAPOLI
Congressman Patrick Murphy, who recently eked out a victory over former Congressman Allen West in District 18, has now been labeled the “most vulnerable Democrat.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the product of highly respected University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, said just that on Feb. 7. The Crystal Ball has been a leader in accurately predicting elections across the country.
One way to determine vulnerability of Democrats in Congress is to look at districts where Mitt Romney won yet the Republican congressional candidate lost. An analysis of Congressional District 18 shows that Romney won the district, and the numbers show how vulnerable Murphy may be in 2014.
| Romney | Obama | West | Murphy | |
| Palm Beach | 71,066 | 65,699 | 68,348 | 68,158 |
| Martin | 48,183 | 30,107 | 43,333 | 32,532 |
| St. Lucie | 56,202 | 65,869 | 52,672 | 65,567 |
| Total Votes | 175,451 | 161,675 | 164,353 | 166,257 |
| Percentage Total of 2-way race | 52% | 48% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
The numbers clearly show this is a swing district. To Read More Click Here