I wrote a piece today in BizPACReview entitled “Who will beat the nation’s most vulnerable Democrat” analyzing the numbers in the Congressional District 18 race between Allen West and Patrick Murphy.  You can read part of it here and link to the full story below.

Who will beat the nation’s ‘most vulnerable Democrat’?

FEBRUARY 19, 2013 BY RICHARD DENAPOLI

Congressman Patrick Murphy, who recently eked out a victory over former Congressman Allen West in District 18, has now been labeled  the “most vulnerable Democrat.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the product of highly respected University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, said just that on Feb. 7. The Crystal Ball has been a leader in accurately predicting elections across the country.

One way to determine vulnerability of Democrats in Congress is to look at districts where Mitt Romney won yet the Republican congressional candidate lost. An analysis of Congressional District 18 shows that Romney won the district, and the numbers show how vulnerable Murphy may be in 2014.

	Romney	Obama	West	Murphy
Palm Beach	71,066	65,699	68,348	68,158
Martin	48,183	30,107	43,333	32,532
St. Lucie	56,202	65,869	52,672	65,567
Total Votes	175,451	161,675	164,353	166,257
Percentage Total of 2-way race	52%	48%	49.7%	50.3%

 

The numbers clearly show this is a swing district. To Read More Click Here