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Richard DeNapoli at the RPOF January 2015 Elections

Today, January 18th, 2015, Richard DeNapoli attended the Republican Party of Florida Annual Meeting, which featured the election of officers.

In addition to visiting with old friends from the Broward Republican Party, like new chair Christine Butler, Richard was there in support of Joe Gruters and his candidacy for Vice Chair of the Republican Party of Florida.

Congratulations to the winners, most notably new Party Chairman Blaise Ingoglia and new Vice Chairman, Joe Gruters.

Richard DeNapoli and Blaise Ingoglia

Richard DeNapoli and new RPOF Chair Blaise Ingoglia, picture from back in 2013

Richard DeNapoli and Joe Gruters

Richard DeNapoli and Joe Gruters at the RPOF 2015 Annual Meeting

Broward Election Recap – Part 1 of a Series

FIRST in a SERIES.  

The takeaway: Liberal Broward County’s 2014 vote for the Republican candidate for Governor was less than 30% (the lowest countywide percentage for a Republican Gubernatorial candidate in Broward for available historical records), and Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Governor Scott was actually lower than he received in 2010.

STATEWIDE.  The election results have finally been certified.  Governor Rick Scott officially won Florida with a margin of 64,145 votes.  I, of course, was very pleased that Governor Scott was reelected.  As I’ve done in the past, I’ll attempt to put all of these numbers in context, and compare them to past elections.  I started by analyzing some Sarasota county election results here, here and here.  Now, after some requests, I’ll begin with some Broward County election analysis before moving onto statewide trends.

BROWARD BACKGROUNDER.  First, let’s start with a little Broward County election history. (I grew up there.)  Registered Republican numbered 236,069 voters, while Democrats numbered 545,119 as of the book closing date of the November 2014 election.  As you can see, Broward county is a liberal bastion that Democratic candidates depend upon to deliver them votes. Typically, a Republican candidate had to pull about 35% of the vote in Broward in order to win the state of Florida.  Governor Scott changed this dynamic back in 2010 when he won Florida while only receiving 33.35% of the vote in Broward.  He did this with increased turnout from the northern, more Republican parts of Florida.  2010 was also a “Republican wave” year, where Democratic turnout was depressed compared to past election cycles.  In Broward, total turnout was only 41% back in 2010.  (This is turnout of all voters.  Turnout by party is generally available from the Supervisor of elections about a month after the election.  When turnout is low in heavily Democratic Broward County, that usually means Democrats didn’t turn out.  In fact, Republicans in Broward had about a 49% turnout in 2010.)  This year, total turnout was 44.48%, which means that Democratic turnout had to have increased compared to 2010.  Broward has generally exhibited lower turnout in recent years (since 1998) compared to the state as a whole, which had a 50.51% turnout in 2014, and may be explained by reading the Decline of the Broward’s Midterm Voter.

BROWARD VOTE TOTALS FOR SCOTT AND CRIST.  In Broward, it was 138,394 votes for Scott and 318,950 votes for Crist.  That’s a margin of 180,556 for Crist. As I mentioned, Broward county is a liberal bastion so it was a typically lopsided showing.  In fact, it seems to be the worst showing for a Republican gubernatorial candidate as far back as the data is available.  Going back to 1978 (as far as available on the state and local supervisor of elections, see graphic below), I couldn’t find any gubernatorial election where the Republican received less than 30% of the vote in Broward, but in this year’s election Scott only received 29.47% in Broward.  Democrat Charlie Crist increased the Broward Democratic margin of victory by a whopping 49,395 votes better than Democrat Gubernatorial Candidate Alex Sink in 2010. Governor Scott had to overcome these deficits by adding some serious numbers from Duval, St. Johns, and Sumter, as well as ratcheting up his margins in many other smaller counties throughout the state.  Crist performed far behind Sink in northern Florida, where he spent little time campaigning.  Scott actually received 2,051 less raw votes in Broward County than he did in 2010.  Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Scott was actually lower than in 2010.

Past Gubernatorial Results for Broward County

Past Gubernatorial Results for Broward County

In future posts in this series, I’ll try to examine why the vote turned out like it did by reviewing turnout and voter performance, comparing the more Republican east side of Broward county to the rest of the county, analyzing demographic trends, and trying to draw some conclusions to explain the numbers.

Richard DeNapoli served as the Chairman of the Republican Party of Broward County from December 2010 through December 2012, as was a delegate to the 2008 and 2012 Republican National Conventions from Broward County.  He is an attorney and Certified Financial Planner (R) who now lives in Sarasota County with his family.  You can read more about Richard at www.richard-denapoli.com.

Election Recap: DeNapoli wins Absentee Votes, but Gonzalez Ruled Election Day to win

DeNapoli wins absentee ballot count, but Gonzalez ruled Election Day

By Jeremy Wallace, Sarasota Herald Tribune, Wednesday, August 27, 2014

It was a tale of two elections in the House District 74 election.

Venice doctor Julio Gonzalez defeated Richard DeNapoli on Tuesday night, winning 57 percent of the vote in the most hotly contested Republican Primary in the region.

But it wasn’t as one-sided as the results show.

Election results show DeNapoli beat Gonzalez in the absentee voting that started at the end of July. DeNapoli was winning 53.2 percent of the absentee ballots.

DeNapoli prided himself on getting out and going door to door months before Gonzalez went out in full force. DeNapoli’s aggressive early campaign with Gonzalez’s campaigns slow ramp up likely contributed to that results.

But Gonzalez erased most of the gap in early voting that started Aug. 16. When polls opened on Tuesday and after weeks of television ads and mailers, Gonzalez was up, but he and DeNapoli were separated by just 138 votes.

Then everything changed.

Gonzalez won nearly two out of every three Republican voters on Election Day. That 138 vote margin ballooned to almost 2,000.

Undoubtedly, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio will get a lot of credit for Gonzalez rebound. Rubio cut a television commercial supporting Gonzalez that was airing non-stop in the closing days of the election to help drive turnout.

Election Results: DeNapoli wins Absentee Votes, but Gonzalez Wins Early and Election Day Votes to win the election

Election Results: DeNapoli wins Absentee Votes, but Gonzalez Wins Early and Election Day Votes to win the election

To read more, click here

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From “House District 74: Julio Gonzalez

by Jeremy Wallace, Sarasota Herald Tribune, August 26th, 2014

…The two candidates [DeNapoli and Gonzalez] combined to spend more than $660,000 in their battle to win a two-year term that pays just over $30,000 a year. In addition, political groups poured in at least another $900,000, for a combined $1.5 million used primarily on attacking ads on TV, in mailers and on the Internet. …

Gonzalez benefitted from a strong endorsement from U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, a Miami Republican, down the stretch. Rubio made television ads that blanketed Sarasota in an effort to help Gonzalez.

“I am forever indebted to him,” Gonzalez said.

DeNapoli, who called Gonzalez to concede and endorse him, said he had no regrets. He said he didn’t have the money to overcome the outside political committees that helped Gonzalez.

The Florida Medical Association alone spent more than $375,000 through a pair of political action committees to run ads against DeNapoli. …

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From “Polls Show Sarasota County Divided

by Jeremy Wallace, Sarasota Herald Tribune, August 27th, 2014

…in the state House District 74 primary battle between Republicans Julio Gonzalez and Richard DeNapoli, voters in Venice and North Port took opposing approaches.

DeNapoli won in North Port with 51 percent of the vote. But Venice favored Gonzalez, with 64 percent of the vote.

Because turnout was much higher in Venice, Gonzalez won the seat, despite losing North Port, the county’s largest city.

…DeNapoli and [Shannon] Snyder [a County Commission candidate] showed that while North Port can break differently than other parts of the county, winning there is not yet enough to build a victorious campaign because of how much lower voter turnout is there compared to areas like Venice.

Though North Port has 59,000 residents, only about 5,800 voted Tuesday, even though it had two big City Commission races, three School Board races and a premier state House race on the ballot. In Venice, which has 21,000 residents, almost 3,800 voters turned out.

[Republican Party County Chairman Joe] Gruters said if North Port residents took advantage of their potential political power, they could dominate county politics.

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From “Gonzalez Clinches House District 74 Seat”

By Steve Reilly, North Port Sun, August 27th, 2014

…Gonzalez said he was pleased DeNapoli had called to congratulate him.

“He was very cordial and gracious and he wished me a lot of success and I’m very grateful that he called and expressed his well wishes,” he said.


Next Broward Republican Party Meeting – Monday, December 3rd, 2012 – Election of Officers

Notice to Media

Original Message to Members Posted Below

Broward GOP

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11/21/2012

 Dear Current BREC Members,
 
 This is the official notice for the
Broward Republican Party Meeting for the
Election of Officers
for the following positions:
Chairman
Vice-Chair
Secretary
Treasurer
Monday, December 3rd, 7 PM SHARP
Sign in begins at 6 PM
Sheraton Suites Hotel
555 NW 62nd Street
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33309
(just west of Andrews Ave off of the Cypress Creek West Exit of 1-95)
Celebration for Outgoing Officers
Cake and Coffee
Sincerely,
BREC Executive Board
 
 
www.browardgop.org
Political advertisement paid for and approved by the Broward Republican Executive Committee.  Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.  There is no audio or video recording permitted at our meetings.

Original Email from Richard DeNapoli Date: November 23, 2012

Precinct Walks this Weekend for Jerry Fadgen & Shari McCartney

PRECINCT WALKS THIS WEEKEND

Jerry Fadgen

Jerry Fadgen

for JERRY FADGEN

(Plantation Mayoral Candidate) &

Shari McCartney

Shari McCartney

SHARI McCARTNEY

(Oakland Park City Commission Candidate)

ELECTION DAY IS MARCH 8th!

 Jerry Fadgen in Plantation

SATURDAY – Jan. 22 – 9 a.m.

Meet at Plantation City Hall, 400 NW 73rd Ave. – Plantation 33317

SATURDAY – Jan. 22 – 2 p.m.

Meet at parking lot of Walgreens, Corner of Nob Hill and Broward

SUNDAY – Jan. 23 – 1:30 p.m.

Meet at Shopping Center

One Block west Central Park Dr. & Broward

If you plan to attend, please contact Jerry at jerryfad@aol.com.

Shari McCartney in Oakland Park

www.electshari.com

SATURDAY – Jan. 22 – 9:00 a.m.

Meet at JJ’s diner at 9:00 (8:00 if you want to eat)

It is on Andrews Ave., one block north of Oakland Park Blvd., on the east side of street.

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We will keep you posted on their campaign events.  Now is the time to get involved!
Don’t forget our BREC Meeting on Monday, January 31st – both of the above candidates will be speaking.
All the best,
Richard DeNapoli, Chairman
Republican Party of Broward County
Political advertisement paid for and approved by the Broward Republican Executive Committee. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

Original Email Date: January 21, 2011