It’s a Boy – Vincent Jonas DeNapoli

Dear Friends,
 
It’s a Boy!
Vincent Jonas DeNapoli
Vincent Jonas DeNapoli

Born: December 2, 2014 at 6:26 P.M.

8 Pounds, 7 Ounces

 

This December 2nd, at 6:26 P.M., Brigita and I welcomed our second son, Vincent Jonas DeNapoli, to the world at Sarasota Memorial Hospital.
Brigita and baby Vincent are doing well, and big brother Victor is excited about his new little brother.

Richard DeNapoli
624 Alhambra Rd.
Venice, FL 34285
(941) 228-3738

Broward Election Recap – Part 3 – Demographic Changes

To continue my series covering Broward’s election results for 2014, I’ll show in this graphic the demographic breakdown among Broward County’s registered voters.

Some trendlines:

  • Hispanic Voters Showing the Most Registration Growth with 2.95% or 35,400 voters
  • Black Voters also showing registration growth of 1.73% or 23,819 voters
  • White Voters declined 5.57% of the total registered voters in Broward, or less 45,198 voters
  • NPA or Third Party Voters grew 3.15% of the total or 39,626 voters, while Rep and Dems declined as % of whole
  • Overall Registered Voters climbed 25,442
  • White Voters dominate the Republican Party, with 73% of Registered Repubicans
  • Increasing Number of Black Voters in Democrat Party, now comprising 36.5% of all Democrats in Broward
  • Hispanics increasingly registering as NPA, now at 24% of all NPA voters; Hispanics have also increased as a percentage of registered Republicans and Democrats.

See the graphic below for more details.

Broward Demographics 2014 compared to 2010, data from State Supervisor of Elections

Broward Demographics 2014 compared to 2010, data from State Supervisor of Elections

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Richard DeNapoli served as the Chairman of the Republican Party of Broward County from December 2010 through December 2012, as was a delegate to the 2008 and 2012 Republican National Conventions from Broward County.  He is an attorney and Certified Financial Planner (R) who now lives in Sarasota County with his family.  You can read more about Richard at www.richard-denapoli.com.

Broward Election Recap – Part 2 of a Series

The recap takeaway: The more Republican “East Side” of Broward County exhibited remarkable uniformity in its voting patterns, showing similar numbers for Representative George Moraitis, Ellyn Bogdanoff, and County Commissioner Chip LaMarca.  It also averaged a 51.4% turnout, much higher than the rest of the county.  Republican voter performance (i.e., how much Republicans turn out) is key to Republican victories here, and outweighs simple registration numbers.

In my first post, I examined the countywide numbers for Governor Scott and Charlie Crist.  In this post, I’ll take a look at Northeast Broward, the traditional territory in Broward County where Republicans are competitive.

Let’s define this territory generally as that encompassed by State Representative District 93, where Republican George Moraitis is the incumbent and won with 56.7% of the vote in this all-Broward district.  These same precincts represent the Broward portion of State Senate District 34, where Democrat Maria Sachs is the incumbent.  Former Republican State Senator Ellyn Bogdanoff ran for this seat again in 2014, receiving 55.5% of the vote in the Broward portion of this district, but was unsuccessful because the State Senate district also takes in more Democratic areas in Palm Beach county.

Republican County Commissioner Chip LaMarca won in a district that contains some of this area with 52.9% of the vote against Democrat Ken Keechl.  

I was personally pleased to see Moraitis and LaMarca reelected, and sad that Bogdanoff didn’t make it despite winning the Broward portion of SD34.  But now, it’s off to the cold hard numbers…

REGISTRATION NUMBERS:  The Broward portion of Senate District 34, as of the book closing date of the 2014 General election, contains 40,287 Republicans (36.9%), 38,166 Democrats(34.9%), and 30,871 Others(28.2%), for a total of 109,324 registered voters.  So, there’s a 2% Republican Registration advantage.  County Commission 4 contains 36,833 Republicans (32%), 46,610 Democrats (40.4%), 31,790 Others (27.6%) for a total of 115,233 Registered Voters.  So, there’s an 8.4% Democrat registration advantage.

UNIFORM VOTING.  What’s amazing is how uniform the voters are here.  In the Broward portion of State Senate District 34, Ellyn Bogdanoff received 55.5% of the vote.  George Moraitis, running in these same precincts for reelection to the State House, received 56.7% of the vote.   Most will agree that while Bogdanoff’s race against Maria Sachs involved hundreds of thousands of dollars spent in a very competitive race, Moraitis faced a relatively unknown opponent, Scott Herman.  Herman, while loading up his campaign account with over $340,000 in loans to himself, ended up spending just about zero in the final month of the campaign.  Bogdanoff had total expenditures of over $700,000 (not including outside ECOs), and Sachs spent almost $300,000 in her direct campaign account (not including Democratic Party and ECO expenditures).  So, we can use the Moraitis race as a test case for a noncompetitive race, while Bogdanoff’s was a competitive race.

So even with hundreds of thousands spent in a highly competitive race, it was tough to move the needle either way.   Moraitis received about 200 more votes than Bogdanoff in those same precincts, despite Moraitis not having a very competitive race.  Conversely, Sachs received about 1,000 more votes (not a huge difference) than the unknown Herman in the same precincts.  The only race where there seemed to be any real change in voting patterns was the governor’s race.  Rick Scott received about 4,300 less votes than Moraitis in these precincts.  The Governor’s race was definitely the most competitive, receiving the most paid-for (over $100 million spent between the candidates) and earned media attention, so perhaps this shouldn’t be a surprise.  Also, a third party candidate could have skewed the numbers in the Governor’s race a little.  Outside of Scott underperforming the average Republican candidate, however, there was remarkable uniformity in what percentages the Republican candidates scored in Northeast Broward.

Let’s compare Broward precincts that overlap each other in House District 93, State Senate 34, and County Commission District 4.  The results in these precincts were Bogdanoff: 57.03%, Moraitis: 58.61% and LaMarca: 59.75%.  LaMarca’s race was slightly more competitive than Moraitis’s race: while LaMarca showed about $350,000 in spending, the underfunded Democrat Ken Keechl spent about $30,000 on his campaign in the last month (not included any ECOs in these two numbers).  Still, LaMarca had the most crossover votes in this portion of his district, doing about 1% better than Moraitis, which is admirable considering the more competitive nature of the race.  Every precinct that LaMarca won is this portion of the district, Moraitis also won.

Now, let’s analyze the portion of LaMarca’s district that is NOT in House District 93/State Senate 34.  In these precincts, many of which have larger African American populations, LaMarca received only 27.9% of the vote.  Let’s compare this to Adam Putnam’s percentage in those same precincts: Putnam received 27%.  We have to use a statewide candidate to compare here, since neither Bogdanoff nor Moraitis ran in those precincts.  Adam Putnam performed most similarly to Bogdanoff, Moraitis and LaMarca in the other precincts, so we are using his numbers here.  (I’m not using Rick Scott numbers as a comparison, because Scott underperformed every other Republican here.)  So LaMarca still had more crossover support in these precincts, outpacing Putnam by 0.9%.  Still, it’s a remarkably uniform pattern where there is only a 0.9% difference.  Mixing these much more Democrat-heavy precincts together with those in HD93/SD34, LaMarca ended up with about 53% of the vote.

So, one might ask, how do these seats, which seem more competitive on paper, end up being such landslides for Republicans?

NPA’s MUST BE “REPUBLICAN LEANING” IN NE BROWARD.  Studies have shown that NPA voters typically side with the majority of voters surrounding them.  Thus, Broward’s NPA voters in the more Republican East side of Broward will typically vote for the Republican candidate, while NPA voters in the rest of Broward will typically vote for the Democrat candidate.  NPAs typically turn out in much lower numbers than Republicans or Democrats.  Democrats and Republicans typically vote for their party’s nominee about 80% or more of the time.  In close districts, which way the NPAs lean can be the difference.  Northeast Broward, however, which typically gives outsized victories to the Republicans, seems to show that NPAs here must be siding with the Republican candidate.  With Bogdanoff scoring 55.5% to Sach’s 44.5% in the Broward portion of SD34, which contains only a 2% Republican voter registration advantage, NPAs must be siding with the Republican candidate here.

VOTER TURNOUT/PERFORMANCE IS KEY.  Turnout in Broward as a whole was only 44.48%.  But turnout in SD34/HD93 precincts was 51.41%.  Turnout in the County Commission 4 districts that are NOT in SD34/HD93 was only 43.02%.  So, it’s easy to see that the more Republican areas of Broward turned out much heavier.  Voter performance is key to Republican victories here.  

Though we don’t have the breakdown of who voted by registration – those numbers are available yet – you can see that Republican voters turned out in higher percentages than Democrats here, leading to outsized victories compared to the registration numbers.

In LaMarca’s County Commission district 4, while the simple registration numbers show an 8.4% advantage for the Democrats, when you look at how voters typically turn out (voter performance) in an off-year non presidential election, you will see that as a percentage of who shows up to vote, County Commission District 4 actually has a 1% Republican turnout advantage.  (I am using turnout numbers available for these precincts from the 2006 and 2010 elections.  As I said earlier, date for 2014 that breaks out party registration isn’t available yet.)  Even if the non-SD34 precincts had exhibited a similar turnout to the SD34 precincts, it would still have titled the race towards LaMarca since County Commission District 4 contains a lot more voters within the SD34 precincts.  Since this district only has its election in non-Presidential years, you can expect a similar turnout pattern and voter performance in the future.  Democrats simply don’t tend to show up to vote in non-presidential years.  2006 was the rare exception – a wave Democrat year when Ken Keechl won this seat when it had a Republican registration advantage.  Unless there’s another wave-Democrat off-year election in 2018, you can expect a Republican advantage in voter performance in County Commission District 4.  This pattern is also visible in statewide races.  Florida Democrats will show up in Presidential Years (2008,2012), but not in off-years (2010,2014).  In some Florida state house districts, this pattern is clearly visible.  State House District 63, in Tampa, swings wildly despite its 6,000 more Democrats voter registration advantage.  With an election every two years, it recently elected a Democrat in 2012 and a Republican in 2014.  It’s because Democrat voters will show up in a Presidential Year (2012), but voter performance turns this district to a Republican advantage in off-years.

The takeaway is that the Democrat cannot simply rely on a registration advantage to win in County Commission District 4, because it’s voter performance that matters. LaMarca also deserves immense credit for outpacing other Republicans in these precincts, and running an excellent campaign focused on service to the district rather than partisanship.

Richard DeNapoli served as the Chairman of the Republican Party of Broward County from December 2010 through December 2012, as was a delegate to the 2008 and 2012 Republican National Conventions from Broward County.  He is an attorney and Certified Financial Planner (R) who now lives in Sarasota County with his family.  You can read more about Richard at www.richard-denapoli.com.

Broward Election Recap – Part 1 of a Series

FIRST in a SERIES.  

The takeaway: Liberal Broward County’s 2014 vote for the Republican candidate for Governor was less than 30% (the lowest countywide percentage for a Republican Gubernatorial candidate in Broward for available historical records), and Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Governor Scott was actually lower than he received in 2010.

STATEWIDE.  The election results have finally been certified.  Governor Rick Scott officially won Florida with a margin of 64,145 votes.  I, of course, was very pleased that Governor Scott was reelected.  As I’ve done in the past, I’ll attempt to put all of these numbers in context, and compare them to past elections.  I started by analyzing some Sarasota county election results here, here and here.  Now, after some requests, I’ll begin with some Broward County election analysis before moving onto statewide trends.

BROWARD BACKGROUNDER.  First, let’s start with a little Broward County election history. (I grew up there.)  Registered Republican numbered 236,069 voters, while Democrats numbered 545,119 as of the book closing date of the November 2014 election.  As you can see, Broward county is a liberal bastion that Democratic candidates depend upon to deliver them votes. Typically, a Republican candidate had to pull about 35% of the vote in Broward in order to win the state of Florida.  Governor Scott changed this dynamic back in 2010 when he won Florida while only receiving 33.35% of the vote in Broward.  He did this with increased turnout from the northern, more Republican parts of Florida.  2010 was also a “Republican wave” year, where Democratic turnout was depressed compared to past election cycles.  In Broward, total turnout was only 41% back in 2010.  (This is turnout of all voters.  Turnout by party is generally available from the Supervisor of elections about a month after the election.  When turnout is low in heavily Democratic Broward County, that usually means Democrats didn’t turn out.  In fact, Republicans in Broward had about a 49% turnout in 2010.)  This year, total turnout was 44.48%, which means that Democratic turnout had to have increased compared to 2010.  Broward has generally exhibited lower turnout in recent years (since 1998) compared to the state as a whole, which had a 50.51% turnout in 2014, and may be explained by reading the Decline of the Broward’s Midterm Voter.

BROWARD VOTE TOTALS FOR SCOTT AND CRIST.  In Broward, it was 138,394 votes for Scott and 318,950 votes for Crist.  That’s a margin of 180,556 for Crist. As I mentioned, Broward county is a liberal bastion so it was a typically lopsided showing.  In fact, it seems to be the worst showing for a Republican gubernatorial candidate as far back as the data is available.  Going back to 1978 (as far as available on the state and local supervisor of elections, see graphic below), I couldn’t find any gubernatorial election where the Republican received less than 30% of the vote in Broward, but in this year’s election Scott only received 29.47% in Broward.  Democrat Charlie Crist increased the Broward Democratic margin of victory by a whopping 49,395 votes better than Democrat Gubernatorial Candidate Alex Sink in 2010. Governor Scott had to overcome these deficits by adding some serious numbers from Duval, St. Johns, and Sumter, as well as ratcheting up his margins in many other smaller counties throughout the state.  Crist performed far behind Sink in northern Florida, where he spent little time campaigning.  Scott actually received 2,051 less raw votes in Broward County than he did in 2010.  Broward was the only county in the state where the raw vote total for Scott was actually lower than in 2010.

Past Gubernatorial Results for Broward County

Past Gubernatorial Results for Broward County

In future posts in this series, I’ll try to examine why the vote turned out like it did by reviewing turnout and voter performance, comparing the more Republican east side of Broward county to the rest of the county, analyzing demographic trends, and trying to draw some conclusions to explain the numbers.

Richard DeNapoli served as the Chairman of the Republican Party of Broward County from December 2010 through December 2012, as was a delegate to the 2008 and 2012 Republican National Conventions from Broward County.  He is an attorney and Certified Financial Planner (R) who now lives in Sarasota County with his family.  You can read more about Richard at www.richard-denapoli.com.

Sarasota Analysis: GOP wins overall but Democrats win Absentee Ballot votes in Marquee Races

In my continuing series analyzing the Sarasota County November 2014 election results, I have focused on the Governor’s race and the School Board race.

One interesting trend, however, is not just who wins but who wins the portion of the votes cast via Absentee Ballot, Early Voting, and on Election Day.

Absentee ballots have largely been thought of to be a source of strength for the Republican candidates statewide, but the numbers in the November 2014 elections in Sarasota may show the opposite trend locally.  In all of the most hotly contested countywide races, the Democratic candidate won the absentee ballot vote.  In some of the other races, even where the Republican candidate won by a solid amount, the Democrat did much better and even won the absentee ballot vote in one case.  We won’t know the breakdown of how many Republicans, Democrats, and Independents actually voted until about 30 days after the election – for now we just know the vote totals.

Conversely, Republicans won the Early Vote in all of these races and won the Election Day vote by the most outsized margins.

In the Governor’s race, Charlie Crist actually received 27,265 Absentee votes to Scott’s 24,516.

Sarasota Gov Race Numbers

Sarasota Governor’s Race Breakdown, via Sarasota Supervisor of Elections Website, as of November 9, 2014

In the hotly contested School Board race between Ken Marsh (Democrat) and Bridget Ziegler (Republican), Marsh received 23,985 Absentee ballot votes to Ziegler’s 21,653 votes.

Marsh v. Ziegler Vote Breakdown

Marsh v. Ziegler Vote Breakdown

You can see this pattern in the less hotly contested countywide races.  In the Charter Review Board race, Republican Joe Justice won overall with 54% to Jennifer Cohen’s 46%.  But Cohen (24,759) received slightly more Absentee votes than Justice (24,210).

Justice v Cohen Vote Breakdown

Justice v Cohen Vote Breakdown

Even in the County Commission race between Republican Alan Maio and Democrat Ray Porter, where Maio won a decisive victory, Porter did much better in the Absentee portion of the vote than in the Early Votes or Election Day votes.

Maio v Porter vote Breakdown

Maio v Porter vote Breakdown

Sarasota School Board Race Analysis – Large “Undervote”

Ken Marsh (Blue) versus Bridget Zeigler (Green) from the Sarasota Supervisor of Elections website, November 8, 2014

Ken Marsh (Blue) versus Bridget Zeigler (Green) from the Sarasota Supervisor of Elections website, November 8, 2014

Following the analysis of the Governor’s Race in my earlier post, we move on to the School Board race.

This was covered in the Sarasota Herald Tribune where they wrote about the “North/South Divide” today between voters in Sarasota county.

The Herald Tribune wrote, with regards to the School Board race:

“Even in nonpartisan races, the divide between north and south is clear. In the Sarasota County School Board race, Ken Marsh, a Democrat, won Sarasota County north of Clark Road with almost 50.5 percent of the vote, to 49.5 percent for Bridget Ziegler, a Republican.

South of Clark, though, Ziegler carried 52 percent of the vote to just 48 percent for Marsh.

But while Marsh won the city of Sarasota, his vote total paled in comparison with other Democrats on the ballot. Though Marsh had a much more organized campaign, Porter and Lawrence both won more votes in the city of Sarasota than Marsh.

Particularly problematic for Marsh was Newtown. In one key precinct there, other Democratic candidates won more than 80 percent of that vote.

Marsh only hit 62 percent.

Though there was indeed a divide, where Marsh won North of Clark by 658 votes, and Ziegler won South of Clark by 3,047 votes, resulting in Ziegler’s 2,389 vote victory, it’s interesting that Ziegler overperformed Republican candidates North of Clark while underperforming South of Clark (comparing Scott v Crist numbers, and taking Wyllie out of the equation).  Also, Marsh underperformed Democratic candidates North of Clark (especially in Newtown, as pointed out above), while overperforming South of Clark.  Perhaps this had to do with the lack of party identification actually being on the ballot.  Perhaps Marsh’s Newtown underperformance also had to do with voters there appreciating Ziegler’s support of vouchers, though there’s no way to know for sure.

One of the most noticeable things about the school board race is the dropoff in votes from the top of the ticket races.  For example, 24,400 less votes (or about 15%) were cast in the School Board race than the Governor’s race.  Though this is not unusual, it is interesting.

Click here to see the spreadsheet attached, analyzing the precincts using numbers from the County Supervisor of Elections taken on 11/7/2014.

About Richard DeNapoli

A native of Hollywood, Florida, Richard DeNapoli is passionate about law, estate planning, financial planning, real estate and the relationships he has formed through helping others in these areas.

In addition to being a Licensed Attorney, Realtor, Mortgage Broker and Notary, Richard has also been successful in obtaining his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® certification. He worked as a Trust and Investment Officer for five years at Northern Trust on a team with $1.8 Billion assets under management providing services to high net worth individuals.

Richard DeNapoli is a native of Hollywood, FL, and a graduate of the University of Miami School of Law (2008, LL.M., Estate Planning), Fordham Law School (2002, J.D.) and New York University (1999, B.A., Politics; B.A. Italian). He was the first person in his family to attend college. He is licensed to practice law in Florida and in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

In 2007, Richard DeNapoli was appointed as a Commissioner to the Florida Real Estate Commission (“FREC”), and subsequently reappointed when that term was up. Both of his appointments to the FREC were confirmed by the Florida Senate.

He was unanimously elected to serve as the Chairman of the Florida Real Estate Commission from 2010-2011, and he continues to serve on the Commission today. Richard also served as the Treasurer of the Broward Republican Party in 2010, and then as Chairman of the Broward County Republican Party through December of 2012. For more than 15 years, Richard has volunteered in various capacities for Republican candidates in New York and Florida.

Recently, Richard has been focusing on his professional career and on his family. Richard is married to Brigita, and they welcomed a new addition to their family, Victor Alfred DeNapoli, who was born in August 2012.

 

“North/South Divide” in Sarasota Continues in Election 2014

Sarasota County Precinct Results for 2014 Governor's Race with Clark Road Division Marked

Sarasota County Precinct Results for 2014 Governor’s Race with Clark Road Division Marked

I’ve been doing some analyses of the Election 2014 results in Sarasota County.  Back in August, Jeremy Wallace, of the Sarasota Herald Tribune, wrote about the “North/South Divide” between voters in Sarasota county.

This trend has continued in the November 2014 elections and is visible in the Governor’s race election.  Continuing a trend in the Governor’s races, Sarasota results were slightly closer, with the margin for the Republican candidate (Rick Scott) only outpacing the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) by about 5,000 votes.  Compared to the 2010 results, the Democratic candidate (Crist) improved his margin by about 1,500 votes.

Analyzing the North of Clark Road precincts, the results are:

Scott: 45.76%
Crist: 48.77%

South of Clark Road precincts:
Scott: 50.90%
Crist: 43.03%

Countywide
Scott: 48.63%
Crist: 45.56%

Scott performed 5.14% better South of Clark than North of Clark
Crist performed 5.75% better North of Clark than South of Clark

So the divide holds where North of Clark is the more Democrat friendly part of Sarasota County and South of Clark is more Republican friendly.

Click here to see the spreadsheet attached, analyzing the precincts using numbers from the County Supervisor of Elections taken on 11/7/2014.

About Richard DeNapoli

A native of Hollywood, Florida, Richard DeNapoli is passionate about law, estate planning, financial planning, real estate and the relationships he has formed through helping others in these areas.

In addition to being a Licensed Attorney, Realtor, Mortgage Broker and Notary, Richard has also been successful in obtaining his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® certification. He worked as a Trust and Investment Officer for five years at Northern Trust on a team with $1.8 Billion assets under management providing services to high net worth individuals.

Richard DeNapoli is a native of Hollywood, FL, and a graduate of the University of Miami School of Law (2008, LL.M., Estate Planning), Fordham Law School (2002, J.D.) and New York University (1999, B.A., Politics; B.A. Italian). He was the first person in his family to attend college. He is licensed to practice law in Florida and in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

In 2007, Richard DeNapoli was appointed as a Commissioner to the Florida Real Estate Commission (“FREC”), and subsequently reappointed when that term was up. Both of his appointments to the FREC were confirmed by the Florida Senate.

He was unanimously elected to serve as the Chairman of the Florida Real Estate Commission from 2010-2011, and he continues to serve on the Commission today. Richard also served as the Treasurer of the Broward Republican Party in 2010, and then as Chairman of the Broward County Republican Party through December of 2012. For more than 15 years, Richard has volunteered in various capacities for Republican candidates in New York and Florida.

Recently, Richard has been focusing on his professional career and on his family. Richard is married to Brigita, and they welcomed a new addition to their family, Victor Alfred DeNapoli, who was born in August 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rick Scott Visits the Sarasota GOP Victory Office

Today I was there for Gov. Rick Scott’s visit to the Sarasota GOP Victory office. Governor Scott greeted the thanked the volunteers and gave a quick speech before going out to knock on doors in Sarasota.

Here are a few pictures:

Rick Scott with Veteran

Rick Scott with Veteran at Sarasota Victory Office

Richard DeNapoli

Volunteering to knock on doors in Venice

 

Richard DeNapoli with Rick Scott September 28 2014

Richard DeNapoli wtih Governor Rick Scott

Rick Scott meeting volunteers Rick Scott